Global stock market trend is expected to maintain the oscillation own run

 Global stock market trend is expected to maintain the oscillation own run
article reproduced from the impact of the outbreak, the main market indexes slumped all the way, showing a nearly free-fall style fall path; one end of the quarter since early in the second quarter, as a leading indicator of economic recovery, despite the global stock market correction and repeated, but overall great show scale, high-margin global stock market rebound .2009 trends show what characteristics? 2010, the upward trend can not continue? this reporter and two industry experts engaged in a dialogue.
Moderator: How do global stock markets over the past year and characteristics of the overall trend? United States, Europe, Asia, etc. What are the characteristics of the different regions?
Golden Rock: 2009, V-reverse global stock markets show that there are two very appropriate words to outline the image of the year the characteristics of global stock markets, that is With the national monetary policy and fiscal policy to do anything to the global stock market bottomed out in the first quarter of this year are ahead of the trend reflects the economic recovery.
the global financial crisis reshaping the world economy, ecology, and promote stock market performance of the different regions. China is also the first stock market correction in the first trough, which was mainly due to China's overall economic balance sheet is no recession, the liquidity cycle and have in advance of the performance of the inventory cycle, liquid release may be Earlier, stocks also make up much earlier. but the whole Asian market and will not necessarily be so lucky in China, Japan, the relative performance of less than satisfactory. In 2009, the Japanese stock market has experienced a drastic devaluation of the market rebound and oscillation.
Moderator: How will the 2010 global stock market evolution? trend will show what kind of shape? What are the factors that contribute to global stock market volatility?
Golden Rock: The global stock market in 2010 can also be described in two words: , the global stock markets should be the overall trend of its own run to maintain oscillation.
gradual recovery as the economy, monetary policy, countries may gradually shrink, and fiscal policy also needs to gradually withdraw the policy out of the strength of the stock market will form a larger affected. to the second half, the central bank to consider the interest rate may gradually adjust the focus of the problem. The withdrawal of monetary policy will greatly affect the pace of change in the economy and stock market performance. fiscal policy, the developed economies of scale in the next year, certainly not, and the use of compared to 2009. developed economies is that it is always a serious debt problem of the fiscal policy constraints, so the withdrawal of fiscal policy next year, efforts will be relatively large, so for the economic recovery and greater impact on the formation of the stock market.
Moderator: What areas do you think of investment in 2010 worth? association between regions of how the market? If U.S. and European markets fell sharply once again thriving Asian market can?
Peng Yan Ping: in 2010, we believe that the Chinese A-share market is the global market most areas of the investment value of .2010, the Chinese economy will continue in the further recovery of the cycle, on the A shares up to form a good support and a solid foundation.
King of rock: the world's major stock markets of the future seems to have been overdrawn expectations, so most investment value in 2010 in addition to the stock market outside of China; worth investing in U.S. real estate market mainly and gold. China's economic stimulus policy will not . Specifically, the growth rate of government investment will decline, real estate investment that the rate of increase in housing starts will be ; the same time, the money supply growth rate will decline, but growth will not fall below 20%. Under these conditions the Chinese A-share market will be steady up, the core trading range is expected in the stock index to 4,000 points 3,000 points . investment in the main line or the economic recovery and inflation expectations, but the conditions in the asset price inflation, the excess money will be split up weakening the CPI index, the annual CPI increase can be controlled in the 3-4% range.
same time, with the national economic stimulus have quit in 2010, the U.S. government's withdrawal of bank credit will be restored to maintain synchronization of the real estate market will stabilize rebound, the dollar's depreciation will come to an end, will also stimulate foreign capital into the U.S. real estate market, Because housing prices in many parts of the United States was macro policies may result in the stock market bubble certainly gathered, and may again lead to crisis. However, the problem is that the current policy is too loose at home and abroad? This may not appear. from the history of monetary policy comparison, the current liquidity control the level of a song in the end did not. fiscal policy, China's two-year implementation plan and 4 trillion yuan investment package of responses, the main purpose is to start to enhance domestic demand and falling exports to make up the gap, compared to 2009, a sharp decline in domestic exports , these measures can not be considered too lenient.
Golden Rock: increase in the volatility of the economy is difficult to avoid the withdrawal of stimulus and prevent the economy from a state of the economy see the recurrence of the possibility of a global economic crisis is almost zero in 2010. He pointed out that asset bubbles is the world's over-the inevitable result of currency, at the present stage of global economic recovery is the recovery of the bubble, but the stock and property markets prosperity, the next stage will be increased by the rate of housing starts to transfer the asset bubble to 50-60 related industries, and promote the recovery of the real economy, thus completing the recovery of bubble recovery of this process of change to the fundamentals. Now, economic cycle has evolved into the formation of asset bubbles and bust cycles, the cycle of 10 years as a cycle, the cycle. Therefore, the decline phase of the next cycle may occur in 2017-2018, the then current global economy In the bubble before the trip, and the asset bubble to grow.